Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

A Holistic Approach to Hydrocarbon Source Allocation in the Subtidal Sediments of Prince William Sound,Alaska, Embayments

Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska has an extensive history of human and industrial activity that has produced a complex organic geochemistry record in subtidal sediments of embayments throughout the sound. In addition to contributions from recent oil spills and a regional background of natural petroleum hydrocarbons originating from active hydrocarbon systems in the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA), pyrogenic and petrogenic PAH were, and continue to be introduced to subtidal sediments at numerous sites of past and present human activities. These sites include villages, fish hatcheries, fish camps and recreational campsites in addition to abandoned settlements, canneries, sawmills, and mines. A holistic approach is used to fingerprint and quantify hydrocarbon contributions from multiple sources in a sediment sample. It involves acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the history of the area to identify potential sources, collection of representative samples, and accurate quantitative analyses of the source and sediment samples for a suite of diagnostic PAH analytes and chemical biomarker compounds. Unlike the deepwater sediments of the sound and GOA, the TOC tool, described elsewhere, does not work as well in some restricted embayments due to their high contents of recent organic matter (ROM). The current study employs a constrained least-squares algorithm to allocate hydrocarbon sources contributing to subtidal sediments collected from PWS embayments in 1991, 1999 and 2000. Results show that sources contributing to the natural petrogenic background are present in the embayments, pyrogenic hydrocarbons including combustion products of diesel are important where human activity was high, and petroleum produced from the Monterey Formation (CA) is present locally. Oil and asphalt shipped from California were widely used for fuel and construction prior to development of the Cook Inlet and North Slope fields. In certain locations that were oiled in 1989, low levels of highly degraded Alaska North Slope crude oil residues attributable to the Exxon Valdez spill remain.     

论园林树木栽培学(各论)的精讲教学法

园林树木栽培学是一门实践性很强的有关园林绿化领域的专业课、必修课.1995年以来,本人在园林树木栽培学各论教学中尝试重点讲解、课堂点评的教学方法,取得了较好的教学效果.     

水体中高锰酸盐指数的流动注射分析方法

研究了用流动注射分析技术测定水体中高锰酸盐指数。使用新发明的耐腐蚀恒流泵、低记忆高效混合器、不存留气泡流通池等部件，通过高温高压，缩短消解时间，从而建立了一种可用于无人值守的自动在线快速监测水体中高锰酸盐指数的分析方法。     

CO2 emission driving forces and corresponding mitigation strategies under low-carbon economy mode: evidence from China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

On account of the background of China’s “new normal” characterized by slower economic growth, this paper analyses the low-carbon economy status quo in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and empirically investigates the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and its various factors for China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region using panel data econometric technique. We find evidence of existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Results also show that economic scale, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are crucial factors to promote CO₂ emissions. However, technological progress, especially the domestic independent research and development, plays a key role in CO₂ emissions abatement. Next, we further analyze the correlation between each subregion and various factors according to Grey Relation Analysis. Thereby, our findings provide important implications for policymakers in air pollution control and CO₂ emissions reduction for this region.     

大气环境数据分析预测方法对比研究

以西安市2006年9月27日至2008年5月3日每日的SO2平均浓度时间序列为例,应用时间序列分析对前555个数据进行拟合,得到合适的时间序列模型ARIMA(1,1,2);利用神经网络中的BP神经网络和RBF神经网络对同样的样本进行训练,用这三种方法对2008年4月4日至2008年5月3日的SO2日均浓度值进行了预测,并用同样的方法分析预测了同期PM10日均浓度值,最后比较了它们的预测效果。结果表明,利用这三种方法进行浓度预测都是可行的,其中RBF神经网络法的预测误差最小,效果最好。     

Effect of inoculation methods on the composting efficiency of municipal solid wastes

Four types of inoculation methods were studied during the composting of municipal solid wastes and dry grass (MSWG). The methods included a control group as well as initial-stage, two-stage, and multi-stage inoculations. Fulvic acids were extracted from the composting materials and characterized by spectroscopic techniques. The results showed that inoculation of microbes in MSWG enhanced the biodegradation of aliphatics, proteins, and polysaccharides. The inoculation also increased the molecular weight, humic- and fulvic-like compound content, as well as humification degree of the composting products. The inoculation of microbes in MSWG significantly improved composting process and efficiency. The improvement efficiency was in the order of initial-stage < two-stage < multi-stage inoculations. Inoculation of microbes based on composting organic matter composition and temperature enhanced composting efficiency.     

A Socio-Ecological Assessment Aiming at Improved Forest Resource Management and Sustainable Ecotourism Development in the Mangroves of Tanbi Wetland National Park, The Gambia, West Africa

Although mangroves dominated by Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle are extending over 6000 ha in the Tanbi Wetland National Park (TWNP) (The Gambia), their importance for local populations (both peri-urban and urban) is not well documented. For the first time, this study evaluates the different mangrove resources in and around Banjul (i.e., timber, non-timber, edible, and ethnomedicinal products) and their utilization patterns, including the possibility of ecotourism development. The questionnaire-based results have indicated that more than 80% of peri-urban population rely on mangroves for timber and non-timber products and consider them as very important for their livelihoods. However, at the same time, urban households demonstrate limited knowledge on mangrove species and their ecological/economic benefits. Among others, fishing (including the oyster—Crassostrea cf. gasar collection) and tourism are the major income-generating activities found in the TWNP. The age-old practices of agriculture in some parts of the TWNP are due to scarcity of land available for agriculture, increased family size, and alternative sources of income. The recent focus on ecotourism (i.e., boardwalk construction inside the mangroves near Banjul city) received a positive response from the local stakeholders (i.e., users, government, and non-government organizations), with their appropriate roles in sharing the revenue, rights, and responsibilities of this project. Though the guidelines for conservation and management of the TWNP seem to be compatible, the harmony between local people and sustainable resource utilization should be ascertained.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-012-0248-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

空气微生物研究方法进展与展望

着重论述了空气微生物气溶胶的研究方法,主要有培养基法和非培养基法。培养基法是传统的微生物研究方法,需要花费大量的时间和劳动力,只能够检测活的能够在培养基上生长的微生物,可以大致反映空气中的微生物气溶胶。非培养基法,主要是PCR法,具有敏感性高、快速、特异性强等特点,能够检测出环境样品中绝大多数的微生物,是一种微生物气溶胶检测的有效途径。最后指出实时持续的监测是将来空气微生物研究的努力方向和发展趋势。     

CGE模型在水资源研究中的应用与展望

文章简要介绍了CGE模型及其在水资源研究中的应用,归纳了水资源在模型中的处理方法,分析了CGE模型应用于水资源研究中存在的问题,并对未来发展趋势进行了展望。从处理水资源问题的方法看,约束条件、要素、中间投入和综合处理等4 种方法是主要的建模手段,并随着数据和建模技术的发展,模型向精细化、复杂化和贴近实际发展。尽管CGE模型在水资源研究中的应用仍然受制于模型本身的缺陷以及对水资源问题的认识和处理方式,但随着理论发展、数据完善,CGE模型在水资源研究中的应用会逐步朝着标准化、模块化、精细化和实用化的方向发展。